Emerging Risks

Every production site we found has expanded significantly in the last five years. 🧵: https://t.co/7fbO4acm1k

Ralph Schoellhammer discusses the potential for revolutionary change in Europe, drawing parallels with historical revolutions. He emphasizes the role of econ...

In today’s newsletter: Our diplomatic editor on how global instability feeds into conflict in so many parts of the world, and whether the threshold for a major global war has been met

Russia has a huge advantage in nuclear arms for use in Europe. In a crisis, Moscow might perceive nuclear superiority and try to exploit it.  Lessening the imbalance may also reassure allies and

Countless potential black swan events could spark a collapse of our fragile geopolitical order

John Mauldin describes how a single grain of sand can make everything collapse.

Leading AIs from OpenAI, Anthropic and Google opted to use nuclear weapons in simulated war games in 95 per cent of cases

If the U.S. does strike Iran, does that suggest a 21st-century Sarajevo and a prelude to a wider war?

China has opposed the ‘smearing of its nuclear policy’ while insisting Beijing would not ‘engage in any nuclear arms race’

There's little public debate about what could be the most consequential U.S. military action in a decade.

Putin’s Most Embarrassing Milestone: Ukraine War Now Longer Than WWII Summary and Key Points: Day 1,418 of Russia’s invasion marks a grim milestone: the war has lasted longer than the Soviet Union’s fight against Nazi Germany. -Moscow’s early push toward Kyiv stalled not because Ukraine lacked warning, but because Russia’s corruption, poor discipline, and hollowed-out […]

archived 13 Feb 2026 16:23:34 UTC

Ali Ahmad Khomeini told a Lebanese TV station that Muslim nations had a “duty” to “erase” the Jewish state

Voters in leading allied states broadly support higher defense spending, but balk when faced with policy trade-offs.

Christopher A. Williams, The Coming War in America, No. 650, February 10, 2026 Download PDF The Coming War in America Christopher A. WilliamsChristopher A. Williams previously held senior

The Trump administration rejected continuing to abide by the expired New START agreement limiting U.S. and Russian nuclear weapons, because it fails to curb Moscow’s strategic arsenal and excludes China’s rapid expansion of its nuclear forces, a senior State Department official said Friday.

Russia and China and the Politics of Nuclear Coercion Last year, the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) concluded that both Russia and China are increasingly dependent on nuclear weapons to achieve th

archived 8 Feb 2026 20:53:21 UTC

“We told the Americans we will strike alone if Iran crosses the red line we set on ballistic missiles,” the source said, adding that Israel is not yet at that threshold.

Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is developing biological and chemical warheads for the country's long-range ballistic missiles, informed military sources told Iran International on Sunday.

Former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani delivered a stark message, arguing the West has ignored a fundamental threat for decades. Giuliani said: “We have failed for a very, very long time to realize that there is a holy war against

Iran's supreme leader accuses the US of aiming to seize his country's oil and natural gas resources.

archived 30 Jan 2026 06:09:44 UTC

Internal tabulations from Iran's Health Ministry indicate that over 30,000 protesters were killed by security forces between January 8-9, 2026, a toll so high it reportedly exhausted the country's supply of body bags. As U.S. warships head to the Middle East, reports describe semi-trailers being used to transport bodies, with experts comparing the scale of violence to the World War II Babyn Yar massacre and Tiananmen Square. Amidst this bloodshed, analysts Ray Takeyh and Reuel Marc Gerecht urge the Trump administration to intervene, while the Atlantic Council outlines military options ranging from strikes on nuclear facilities to targeting the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) directly.

Pentagon's new National Defense Strategy prioritizes homeland defense over overseas missions, warning that future wars may hit U.S. soil directly.

Through the use of artificial intelligence, researchers have proven that the U.S. is not prepared for a war with China.

Annie Jacobsen lays out a second-by-second timeline for how nuclear war could happen. She also discusses time pressure, submarines, interceptor missiles, cyb...