Emerging Risks

Emerging Risks

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China’s Youth Have Started a Silent Revolt
China’s Youth Have Started a Silent Revolt
China’s young people are no longer protesting loudly — many are simply opting out. In this video, we explore Beijing’s growing fear over China’s “lying flat”...
·youtube.com·
China’s Youth Have Started a Silent Revolt
Russia’s Economy Is on the Brink of Collapse
Russia’s Economy Is on the Brink of Collapse
Putin is the Head of a Russian State on the Brink of Economic Collapse: Leonid Putin, meet Vladimir Brezhnev. Serious Russian economists are increasingly of the opinion that Russia is in deep trouble and that Putin’s policies are bringing it to the point of collapse. In that sense, Putin’s Russia is following in the footsteps […]
·19fortyfive.com·
Russia’s Economy Is on the Brink of Collapse
Are America and China Condemned to Repeat History? | Foreign Affairs
Are America and China Condemned to Repeat History? | Foreign Affairs
“This world is unlike anything any of us have experienced in our lifetimes,” argues Westad, a professor at Yale and a specialist in modern international and global history. “But it does look quite a bit like the world of more than a hundred years ago, from the late nineteenth century to 1914.”
·foreignaffairs.com·
Are America and China Condemned to Repeat History? | Foreign Affairs
The Next World War: The New Age of Global Conflict
The Next World War: The New Age of Global Conflict
At its core, The Next World War argues that the post Cold War illusion of peace has collapsed. Apps describes a world where great power competition has returned with renewed intensity driven primarily by tensions between the United States, China, and Russia. Rather than presenting war as a distant or hypothetical possibility, Apps frames it as a credible risk within the coming decade. A risk that is already shaping policy, military planning, and everyday life.
·wavellroom.com·
The Next World War: The New Age of Global Conflict
Iran’s Regime Has Changed—for the Worse - WSJ
Iran’s Regime Has Changed—for the Worse - WSJ
“The war changed the regime—and not in a good way,” said Danny Citrinowicz, who formerly headed the Iran desk for Israeli military intelligence. “We created a reality that is worse than what Iranians were facing before the war.”
·archive.md·
Iran’s Regime Has Changed—for the Worse - WSJ
Iran’s Next Move Is the Bomb—If the Regime Survives
Iran’s Next Move Is the Bomb—If the Regime Survives
As the United States and Israel continue to decimate Iran’s conventional capabilities, it becomes clearer that their campaign cannot stop until at least one of two objectives is achieved: the co
·realcleardefense.com·
Iran’s Next Move Is the Bomb—If the Regime Survives
Thomas Bordeaux on X: "For months, we’ve been digging into China’s nuclear weapons program, identifying where weapon components are built and how those sites are changing. Every production site we found has expanded significantly in the last five years. 🧵: https://t.co/7fbO4acm1k" / X
Thomas Bordeaux on X: "For months, we’ve been digging into China’s nuclear weapons program, identifying where weapon components are built and how those sites are changing. Every production site we found has expanded significantly in the last five years. 🧵: https://t.co/7fbO4acm1k" / X
Every production site we found has expanded significantly in the last five years. 🧵: https://t.co/7fbO4acm1k
·x.com·
Thomas Bordeaux on X: "For months, we’ve been digging into China’s nuclear weapons program, identifying where weapon components are built and how those sites are changing. Every production site we found has expanded significantly in the last five years. 🧵: https://t.co/7fbO4acm1k" / X
The Coming Revolution in Europe
The Coming Revolution in Europe
Ralph Schoellhammer discusses the potential for revolutionary change in Europe, drawing parallels with historical revolutions. He emphasizes the role of econ...
·youtube.com·
The Coming Revolution in Europe
Trump, Xi, and the Specter of 1914 | Foreign Affairs
Trump, Xi, and the Specter of 1914 | Foreign Affairs

"The world today is not heading for a new Cold War but rather a dangerous multipolar scramble like the early 20th century."

Core Analogy The current U.S.-China rivalry strongly resembles the pre-1914 world: multiple great powers in economic and technological competition, rising nationalism, weakening globalization, regional conflicts, and poor mutual understanding among leaders.

Like 1914, small unresolved issues risk spiraling into catastrophic great-power conflict; World War I killed ~40 million and was largely unforeseen.

·archive.md·
Trump, Xi, and the Specter of 1914 | Foreign Affairs
Nuclear Deterrence Gap in Europe
Nuclear Deterrence Gap in Europe
Russia has a huge advantage in nuclear arms for use in Europe. In a crisis, Moscow might perceive nuclear superiority and try to exploit it.  Lessening the imbalance may also reassure allies and
·realcleardefense.com·
Nuclear Deterrence Gap in Europe
Are we on the precipice of World War III?
Are we on the precipice of World War III?
Countless potential black swan events could spark a collapse of our fragile geopolitical order
·responsiblestatecraft.org·
Are we on the precipice of World War III?
Trump moves closer to a major war with Iran
Trump moves closer to a major war with Iran
There's little public debate about what could be the most consequential U.S. military action in a decade.
·axios.com·
Trump moves closer to a major war with Iran
3 Reasons Russia Can’t Win in the War in Ukraine
3 Reasons Russia Can’t Win in the War in Ukraine
Putin’s Most Embarrassing Milestone: Ukraine War Now Longer Than WWII Summary and Key Points: Day 1,418 of Russia’s invasion marks a grim milestone: the war has lasted longer than the Soviet Union’s fight against Nazi Germany. -Moscow’s early push toward Kyiv stalled not because Ukraine lacked warning, but because Russia’s corruption, poor discipline, and hollowed-out […]
·19fortyfive.com·
3 Reasons Russia Can’t Win in the War in Ukraine