The geopolitical mismatch driving Russia to threaten the West
Russia is threatening the West primarily because of a sharp geopolitical imbalance in the Ukraine war: Kyiv can draw on a secure European hinterland for aid, logistics, production, and economic resilience, while Moscow has no comparable backup and feels every strike on its refineries, industry, and infrastructure more directly. Russian leaders therefore see Western support as the factor that lets Ukraine keep fighting, and they want to intimidate European governments and publics into cutting that support through hybrid attacks, sabotage, and increasingly explicit threats. They frame the conflict as a war against the “collective West,” not Ukraine alone, and argue that NATO is damaging Russia’s economy and military capacity at little cost to itself. Without a reliable proxy that can strike NATO territory and absorb retaliation, Moscow treats hybrid operations—and potential limited strikes on European logistics—as the main way to close that gap, raise the price of helping Ukraine, and restore Russian influence over Europe.